Nintendo's Woes Are Not Their Own, But the Industry's

Recently Nintendo has been catching so much flack it might as well be in a World War 2 film. Low sales of the Wii U, taking YouTube revenue, and EA jumping ship would make you think that Nintendo is circling the drain. The reality of the situation is much worse. It's the console industry that is circling.

Wii U sales are dismal, PlayStation 3 and Vita sales are down, 360 sales are stagnant and sales of games have declined year over year. People need to realize that the current state of Nintendo is an indicator of where things are headed.

Many may site the fact that new systems being released later this year from Sony and Microsoft are the reason behind the slow sales of their systems, but that isn't the case. Game sales and revenue from said games are down.

There is a fantastic quote from Patrick Klepec at GiantBomb.com regarding this.

The financials are just crazy now. Like TakeTwo: revenue increase, but no profit despite Borderlands 2 selling 6 million copies and BioShock Infinite selling 3.7. Plenty of their other games sold really well, but Max Payne bombed.

So they make all those hits and one game sinks them. These are on machines with the user bases stretched as far as they're going to go. Now we are going to produce more expensive games and start the user bases over in a market where a lot of the money people spent on these consoles is now in other directions? If you are a AAA publisher or just making games in general, that sounds scary as fuck.

Activision themselves came out and said in their recent conference call that they were hedging their bets this fall saying people shouldn't be laughing so much at the Wii U. Yes, Nintendo made all sorts of unforced errors. They should have just called it the Wii 2, their marketing was confusing, but you shouldn't be laughing at a brand new console from a company like Nintendo that just tanks. Because it is not just an anomaly. There is less money going around. And to just point at Nintendo does not tell the whole story.

Klepec makes the great point about the economy as a whole. People are no longer willing to spend $60 on a brand new game, especially when the current state of game quality is shaky (Colonial Marines anyone?) Restrictive DRM has ruined some game experiences (SimCity, Diablo) and unfinished games have destroyed potential money makers (The Old Republic).

Game development is too expensive and too risky. The economy can't handle it anymore and I'm waiting to see what the general reaction will be when PS4s and the next Xbox don't fly off store shelves when they are released.

These consoles have to provide a service that their current iterations do not. A mere increase in graphical power will not be enough to convince the general public to drop $500 on it. The PS3 can play Blu-rays, Netflix, Hulu, music, surf the internet as well as play games. What will the PS4 provide that the PS3 doesn't? The ability to share a screenshot? How does that justify such a high price tag?

What you are going to see are cross-generational games. Games that come out on the PS3 as well as PS4 because they will lose money if they just go on the PS4. The install base for the PS3 is as big as it is going to get. If you can't make money on a game now, what makes you think you can with a small install base and higher production price tag? You won't.

So while the internet trolls have fun declaring the death of Nintendo, they just need to wait a few months and you'll see similar headlines talking about Microsoft and Sony's low sales and shrinking revenue.

Making Respawn's Next Title an Exclusive is a Major Risk

So the rumors flying around are that Respawn's (formed by the creators of Call of Duty) next big release will be an exclusive to the Xbox platform. It'll be a release title for the next Xbox and will be ported to the 360 as well. This is either a major win or a major loss and it all depends on sales.

Everyone is curious about Respawn's next title. I mean, it's West and Zampella we are talking about here. They redefined the FPS genre with Call of Duty. Unfortunately, the series has become almost a parody of what it initially represented. All you have to do is watch the intro to the original Call of Duty and you'll see it is about soldiers and their struggle during WW2. Now watch the intro to Black Ops 2 and it has turned from a Ridley Scott drama to a Michael Bay action film. Exactly what the series was going against.

I think with CoD series goning way off course was a major factor on why West and Zampella "left" Activision. I'm hoping they go back to what made CoD great with this new release. Which is why I hope it isn't an exclusive.

From a business standpoint I totally understand why Microsoft wants this under wraps. It is a major coup against its competitors and gives a reason to pick up the next console, but I want this game to succeed so the industry will go back to making amazing shooters instead of trying to be the next CoD. If the industry sees a multi-million dollar shooter go for drama, emotion as well as great gameplay then maybe we can make FPSs great again. Achieving that goal though is going to be extremely hard if it is on a single platform.

The reason why CoD is CoD is because it is multiplatform and has zero skills requirements. If Respawn has the ability to be in as many homes as the next CoD it would be a fantastic marking campaign for the company. The problem is if it is an Xbox exclusive, it'll be received like another Halo. It'll carry all the baggage that comes along with the Microsoft platform, mainly a horrific online community comprised of mainly frat boys and teenagers.

I really want to play the Respawn's next title, but I won't do it through the Microsoft platform. This is the reason why I hope it goes multiplatform. It'll give good press to a game that will probably deserve it, it'll boost sales encouraging other companies to take a more story-driven approach and it'll help break the streak that CoD has created within the FPS community.

Selling Refurbished Portables is Great for Business

Yesterday Nintendo announced that they would soon be selling refurbished DSi and 3DSs. I found this to be an awesome piece of news for a few reasons.

One, for obvious reasons, is the reassurance that what you are about to receive will actually work. When purchasing from a second-hand store, like GameStop, you really are buying a product with a roll of the dice. It may work perfectly, have a few glitches, or just stop working after a few hours. Sure GameStop will replace a broken hand held, but that is just more of a headache.

Two is that you are helping the company you love. As stated above, you can buy from stores like GameStop, but that actually does not benefit Nintendo at all. They receive zero profits from that transaction. Many say that Nintendo will see money from it when the customer buys new games, but there is also a chance that they will only buy used (there are people like that out there). Therefore, it is entirely possible that Nintendo will not see any profits at all during that portables lifetime. Buying from Nintendo puts money in their pocket and saves some in yours.

Three is that this is a very possibly glimpse of the future. In the near future, you may be able to buy a console or hand held from a brick and mortar store, or you could buy directly from the company. Sony sold refurbished consoles from its website, why not brand new ones as well? The main reason, as of right now, is competition between other retailers. If a company sells their console for less that another retailer, they will undercut their sales and in turn anger said retailer. The end result may be that that retailer won't sell that product anymore. A similar situation happened in the movie industry where a couple of moves were available via On-Demand the same day that the movie was released. Movie theaters threatened to not show any future films from that studio if they continued to do that practice. The same may happen with retailers and game companies.

Regardless, I feel that Nintendo selling handhelds directly can only help the company and provide the customer with a reliable product.

Nintendo Skipping the E3 Keynote: Good or Bad?

When the bomb dropped that Nintendo was going to skip a keynote this year, I initially was confused and a little frustrated. Nintendo needs all the exposure it can get. The sales of the Wii U are lacking because of the failed PR campaign behind the console. They needed the E3 limelight. Or did they?

Nintendo is instead focusing on presenting their information via Nintendo Directs, the videos that are streamed for and aimed squarely at the fans. All of the bombshells that Nintendo has dropped recently (new Smash Bros. footage coming soon, Link to the Past 2) have been via Nintendo Directs. Not only have these stories given Nintendo the biggest buzz, but they also returned faith to their core fanbase.

So why would Nintendo opt to go this route instead of doing a keynote like it has for years? Simple. They don't need to. Microsoft and Sony are going to take a lot of the press from the event by showing off their new consoles. Nintendo doesn't have a new console to show off; only games. While it is equally important to see the games, let's be honest, all the major outlets are going to devote all their time to Sony and Microsoft. Just more page hits.

So Nintendo see this and figures, let's save a lot of money while at the same time providing the information that everyone was going to hear anyways. Every website and blog would have reported the same news story regardless if they received the information via a keynote or a Nintendo Direct. So it is smart. Nintendo wouldn't have garnered any more media attention if they went to E3.

The downside, and it is kind of a big one, is that the non-gamer will not see anything from Nintendo. Spike, GameTrailers and all these other media outlets broadcast the E3 conference to a much larger audience. Many people who don't read gaming blogs get a lot of information via these broadcasts. So if Nintendo isn't going to show, the non-gamer isn't going to know anything about what they are doing. That is a problem because Nintendo already has a hard enough time getting their core audience to adopt the Wii U let alone mom and pop America.

So to sum this all up, is Nintendo skipping E3 a good or bad thing. Well... I think it's a good thing, but we won't know until after the conference. If the Nintendo Directs blows us away with info regarding Smash Bros, Zelda, Mario Kart etc. then that might be enough to satisfy the masses. If, on the other hand, their Nintendo Directs fail to impress, then Nintendo will have zero representation at the conference. It is a big gamble, but it really is just the way Nintendo works. They rarely, if ever, do what is "normal" or "expected of them". They go their own way. Unfortunately, this dusty trail has no clear exit.

If the next Xbox fails to impress, consoles will be dead in 5 years

So Microsoft will finally lift the lid off of their newest console in a few weeks with much more than anticipation pinned to its chest. How Microsoft presents and the public receives its next console will not only be telling of the health of the console industry, but possibly its immediate future.

If you want to see the decline of the consoles industry all you have to do is look at previous E3s and realize that each one is degrading in quality and meaningful content year after year. When Microsoft themselves dedicated almost 30% of its previous presentation to everything other than games (Smart Glass, ESPN, Hulu) you realize something very quickly: Microsoft doesn’t want to create game consoles; they want to create media devices.

In reality, Microsoft has NEVER created a game console. They have always been media centers in some form or fashion. One of the major bullet points on the original Xbox was that it could play DVDs. The 360 was also promoted in a similar fashion with HD-DVDs. Even today they promote media content more than games. You always read reports about “How many people watch Netflix on the 360 VS other devices” and “Microsoft increases the size of their online music store”. Hell, even the dashboard for the 360 has more ads about products that are not “games”: Mountain Dew Challenge, Doritos XBLA games. It feels that over time Microsoft has slowly turned the consoles into an ad delivery system.

To really blow our hair back Microsoft must hit some key points.

1)      No always-on.

This should be a no-brainer, but if Microsoft really wants everyone to adopt their newest system then they have to make it appealing to every type of person. Not just the privileged that have access to high-speed internet.

2)      A great console does not rely on graphics.

If Microsoft’s answer to winning the market is to make bleeding-edge graphics filled games, then they are doomed. Graphics are slowly reaching a wall. At some point, and it will happen, graphics will get to a point where the only thing that can be improved is the screen resolution. The amount of polygons doesn’t matter anymore because it is so hard to see any difference.

3)      A great console relies on their software.

At the end of the day you are buying a GAME playing device. If there aren’t good games, then what is the point? To watch Netflix on your couch? Most Blu-ray players offer that feature. We buy game machines to play good games and, like point number 2, it can’t just be eye candy. There needs to be a reason to want this, to play this, to experience it. These next consoles already have a major hurdle to jump over and that is GTA 5 and Batman: Arkham Origins are not on their newest systems. If your new system doesn’t have the fun games to play, what is the point of buying it?

4)      Get rid of paid online play.

You’re the only company that is charging for online play, Microsoft. You don’t provide enough to warrant a fee anymore.

5)      Make it more appealing than a Steam Box.

We all know that Valve is making a push into the living room so Microsoft needs to convince us that their box is the right one. Provide amazing online sales. Allow the modding community to legally mod Xbox games. Make it a much more mature environment. You are no longer battling with Sony and Nintendo. With its recent renaissance, it is the PC that you need to watch out for.

The console industry has one shot left to prove that it is still relevant in today’s world. Microsoft has to take the reigns and prove that it isn’t just creating a Xbox with better graphics. It needs to make me want to replace my current living room set up. It needs so show that it can do things better than my PC. Make me want to play with a controller. Make me want to sign up for Xbox Live. Prove that you know what you are doing. Don’t let the industry down because if you do, it all goes with you.